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Frankenstorm Sandy and Her Impact on the U.S.

Will Sandy be the epic storm that it's hyped to be?

I felt like Sandy deserved her own blog post. At the last advisory we had this:

BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 200 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012 ...CENTER OF SANDY MOVING BETWEEN LONG ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...

INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...23.5N 75.4W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF ELEUTHERA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

With increased upper air temps and a 4mb drop in pressure you might expect Sandy to be getting stronger, but wind shear is helping to negate some of those effects. Once Sandy pulls away from an upper level low to it's west, she should begin a more NW motion before again turning more northerly before AGAIN turning NW before landfall. 

This from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
942 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012  

VALID 12Z MON OCT 29 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 01 2012  



...HIGH IMPACT MERGING OF ENERGETIC SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED OFF THE  
MID ATLANTIC COAST...  

PRELIMINARY UPDATE...  

DESPITE A MODEST CLUSTER OF OUTLYING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND  
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, THE LION'S  
SHARE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH  
HURRICANE SANDY WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AMPLIFYING POLAR  
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO  
A HYBRID VORTEX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY.  
THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE  
ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO  
TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD  
SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN,  
INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE  
LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY'S GOTHIC  
CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS.  

AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, WHEN ONE PART OF THE NATION IS EXPERIENCING  
A VERY ENERGETIC ATMOSPHERE DISTURBANCE, THE REMAINDER IS  
RELATIVELY CALM. THIS EVENT SHOULD NOT PROVE THE EXCEPTION, WITH A  
FAIRLY BENIGN FEED OF PACIFIC AIR INTO MOST OF THE WESTERN AND  
CENTRAL STATES. THE FAR WEST, PARTICULAR NORTH OF CALIFORNIA, WILL  
HAVE ENOUGH SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE PERIOD WET AND  
UNSETTLED.  

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North Georgia Weather October 27, 2012 at 04:38 PM
Surge forecast from the NHC (at least for now): FL EAST COAST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...1 TO 2 FT NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBERMARLE SNDS...3 TO 5 FT SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND DELAWARE BAY...4 TO 8 FT
North Georgia Weather October 27, 2012 at 04:47 PM
Gov. Dannel Malloy has declared a state of emergency in Connecticut.
North Georgia Weather October 27, 2012 at 05:09 PM
From a respected meteorologist... "Public safety implication here is that GFS signals major disaster potential NJ, se NY and CT, rainfall high impacts for PA. This solution pushes the snowstorm concept to the southern margins of the precip wraparound albeit very heavy potential there. Frankly these are looking like thousand-year return maps."
North Georgia Weather October 27, 2012 at 06:53 PM
From my meteorologist buddy Robert Gamble: "Not only October snow records will fall, but perhaps some all time snow records could fall in some parts of West Virginia, where up to 4 feet of total snow could fall. The snow and wind will cause massive power outages in parts of the Appalachians and even though surface temperatures aren't terribly cold, this may fall into a practical blizzard of nearly unprecedented proportions, rivaling the Great Appalachian November 1950 storm."
North Georgia Weather October 27, 2012 at 06:56 PM
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 200 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...SANDY PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 75.6W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES
North Georgia Weather October 27, 2012 at 06:57 PM
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450 MILES...725 KM. NOAA BUOY 41010...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES...220 KM...EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 58 MPH...94 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 76 MPH...122 KM/H.
North Georgia Weather October 27, 2012 at 07:19 PM
Tropical Storm force winds http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_10/wind_field.gif Rainfall Estimates Days 1-5 - http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_10/Rainfall_Days_1-5.gif
North Georgia Weather October 27, 2012 at 07:55 PM
Latest from the Atlanta NWS office: THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WINDS...WITH TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING P-TYPE FOLLOWING. TOMORROW THE WINDS PICK UP IN EARNEST AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES...AND WE START SEEING 30-40KT 925MB WINDS ALONG WITH 40 TO NEAR 50KT 850MB WINDS...FIRST ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20MPH TOMORROW WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH IN SOME AREAS...WITH THE MOUNTAINS PEAKS EVEN HIGHER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGGING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY WILL PUSH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A ROUND OF MOISTURE THAT WRAPPED AROUND FROM SANDY. BUFR SOUNDINGS KEEP THE MOISTURE PRETTY MUCH CONFINED TO THE EXTREME LOWEST LEVELS WHICH KEEPS THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE -10C THRESHOLD FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION...BUT WITH SUCH STRONG NNW WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO GET THE MOISTURE TO THE CRITICAL LEVEL. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. DO HAVE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SO A FREEZE WATCH OR POSSIBLY WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THOSE AREAS...WITH POSSIBLY A FROST ADVISORY IN OTHER AREAS... THOUGH IF WINDS STAY UP FROST MAY HAVE A TOUGHER TIME FORMING/...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
R++ One of the Famous Dacula Crew October 27, 2012 at 08:03 PM
Well at least we now all know what a REAL "Overseas Contingency Operation" looks like ...
North Georgia Weather October 27, 2012 at 08:25 PM
BREAKING NOW: Massachusetts becomes 8th state to declare State of Emergency ahead of Sandy.
North Georgia Weather October 27, 2012 at 08:31 PM
States under a State of Emergency: MA, MD, VA, NY, NJ, CT, PA & 40 counties in NC
North Georgia Weather October 27, 2012 at 09:17 PM
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 500 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IS ALSO EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 75.2W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES
North Georgia Weather October 27, 2012 at 09:18 PM
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 MILES...835 KM. NOAA BUOY 41013...LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH... 94 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.
Kristi Reed (Editor) October 27, 2012 at 09:44 PM
Great - my husband is on a plane on the way to Boston now. I showed him your posts ...
North Georgia Weather October 27, 2012 at 10:32 PM
WXsouth.com - Snowfall rates of 2" to 3" per hour in West Virginia Tuesday. The rate of fall and leaves on trees....plus wind, big big trouble.
North Georgia Weather October 28, 2012 at 12:02 AM
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 800 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...SANDY CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD WHILE HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IS ALSO EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 74.7W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES
North Georgia Weather October 28, 2012 at 10:23 AM
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 500 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 73.3W ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
North Georgia Weather October 28, 2012 at 11:07 AM
If you understand statistics, this will have a significant meaning for you... THE 00Z ECMWF & 00Z GFS MODELS ARE CLOSEST TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES AT THE 500 HPA LEVEL WITH SANDY ARE EXTREME/IMPRESSIVE FROM THE GET-GO, RUNNING A RARELY-SEEN SIX SIGMAS BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER NEAR THE 30TH PARALLEL AT THE INITIAL TIME STEP, STRONGLY SUGGESTING A RECORD EVENT IS UNDERWAY. A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO WILL LEAD TO A REASONABLE COMPROMISE ALOFT, WHERE THE 00Z GFS HAS MUCH LOWER 500 HPA HEIGHTS (ON THE ORDER OF 5220 METERS) THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE (THOUGH ITS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES NEAR ITS CENTER IN MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA REMAIN WITHIN FOUR SIGMAS OF NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER SO IT CANNOT BE DISMISSED), INCLUDING THE NAM WHICH CAN BIAS IN THE DEEP DIRECTION. CONSULT LATEST NHC ADVISORIES/DISCUSSIONS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING SANDY.
North Georgia Weather October 28, 2012 at 12:07 PM
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 800 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR... ...WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.1N 73.1W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM E OF NEW YORK CITY NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES 8mb drop in pressure since the 5am reading. The interaction with the upper level jet has begun and Sandy should continue to gain strength for the next 48 hours. This is gonna get wicked now. This image shows how the 500 mb winds (~18,000 feet) are now interacting with Sandy. http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_10/500mb_sf.gif
Kristi Reed (Editor) October 28, 2012 at 12:09 PM
Is the track still the same?
North Georgia Weather October 28, 2012 at 12:12 PM
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 MILES...835 KM. A SHIP LOCTAED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE. ALSO...NOAA BUOY 41036...LOCATED IN ONSLOW BAY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH...94 KM/H.
North Georgia Weather October 28, 2012 at 12:36 PM
This was shortly after midnight when this was posted... and she's only going to get stronger... "Even though the pressure hasn't dropped Sandy has been intensifying in the sense that the wind field is expanding. Sandy now has the largest Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) of any tropical cyclone in history, 222 terajoules (one trillion joules, 10^12). This gives it tremendous surge and wave potential."
North Georgia Weather October 28, 2012 at 12:37 PM
Same track... landfall in NJ
North Georgia Weather October 28, 2012 at 01:19 PM
Delaware ordered mandatory evacuations for coastal communities by 8 p.m. Sunday.
North Georgia Weather October 28, 2012 at 03:00 PM
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR... ...WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.5N 72.6W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES
North Georgia Weather October 28, 2012 at 03:01 PM
IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
North Georgia Weather October 28, 2012 at 03:02 PM
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 32.5N 72.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 34.0N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 36.4N 70.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 38.7N 72.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 40.1N 76.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/1200Z 41.3N 77.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/1200Z 44.5N 76.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/1200Z 46.6N 73.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
North Georgia Weather October 28, 2012 at 03:03 PM
Great webcam on Virginia Beach http://www.vbbound.com/webcam/watermans-boardwalk-cam/
North Georgia Weather October 28, 2012 at 03:32 PM
New blog post... http://dacula.patch.com/blog_posts/sandy-worst-case-scenario
North Georgia Weather October 28, 2012 at 03:32 PM
Mayor Bloomberg: Mandatory evacuation of Zone A in NYC. All public schools will be closed tomorrow.

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