Showers on the Way Followed by Drier, Cooler, Fall-Like Weather
It looks like we'll finally get some rain back in the picture for the start of the work week. Computer models are forecasting a low pressure system to develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico and potentially bring 2-3" of rain over the north Georgia area on Monday and Tuesday.
Later today we'll start to see an easterly flow of moisture off of the Atlantic that will provide showers in southeast-east Georgia. By tomorrow, the flow will be from the southeast as the high pressure system that has kept us sunny and dry for the last week shifts off into the Atlantic, and we'll start to see our chances for rain increasing ahead of an approaching shortwave due to orographic lifting of the air mass.
Our best chances for rain will come on Monday and Tuesday as the low pressure that will form in the Gulf will move NE and bring with it very good chances for rain. Isentropic lift will cause warm moist air to override the cooler air at the surface and provide showers and thundershowers late Sunday into Monday morning. The cooler air at the surface will finally begin to leave on Monday and bands of thundershowers and embedded thunderstorms will rotate through our area during the day on Monday and Tuesday.
Do you like fall weather? Get ready... after the rain moves out of our area late Tuesday, temperatures take a tumble with models showing highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s for the next several days.
We still need the rain as the drought monitor still shows us in an extreme to exceptional drought area. We would need 9-12" of rainfall (last image on the drought monitor page) to break the drought that we're in and we're not going to be getting that kind of rainfall anytime soon.
So enjoy the nice weather for today and tomorrow before the rain returns, followed by cooler, drier fall like weather.
North Georgia Weather
7:18 am on Sunday, September 16, 2012
Added a new graphic from the NWS on this Sunday morning... still looking for 2-3" of rain through Tuesday with chances Monday/Monday night now at 100%.
Tommy Hunter
8:58 am on Sunday, September 16, 2012
I hate drought!
North Georgia Weather
10:39 am on Sunday, September 16, 2012
I'm with you Tommy. I was sure hoping the remnants of Isaac would have come this way but it wasn't to be. This one looks like a good dousing though, and at least enough to help make a dent in it.
Bonnie
9:42 am on Sunday, September 16, 2012
Rain followed by cooler weather. You couldn't have made me happier!
North Georgia Weather
10:41 am on Sunday, September 16, 2012
Football weather coming up! I love fall and all the colors, crisp cool mornings with a little light fog hanging over the ground. Makes me want to head back to the mountains!
David Binder
2:44 pm on Sunday, September 16, 2012
No I'm NOt ready for Fall. To me Fall signals the onset of leaves falling from trees, flowers dying off, & lawns turning brown. I don't mean to sound depressing, it's just that Summer is my favorite season. Before you know it we'll be scraping frost from our windshields & shivering while the car warms up. There IS an up side. I love sitting on my porch on a cool day with a fire in the Chimenea. I love the smell of hardwood burning and the colors of the leaves.
North Georgia Weather
6:37 am on Monday, September 17, 2012
We had 0.60" of rain here overnight so a good start for us. It looks like most everyone in Gwinnett had at least a few 10th's last night with heavier amounts in NE Gwinnett and Barrow County where they had up to 1.5".
The models have slowed down the whole shooting match by 6 to 12 hours, so it's now looking like the rain will continue through at least Wednesday. And while it will get cooler after the rain leaves (slightly below our normals of 80/60), the really cool air now looks to be around the Sunday time frame.
Kristi Reed
8:01 am on Monday, September 17, 2012
I only had about .40" here. Hopefully we will get some more today.
North Georgia Weather
7:42 am on Monday, September 17, 2012
The latest from the Atlanta NWS office:
..TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TIER...
..ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WET WEATHER IN STORE WITH INCREASINGLY DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER E TX FORECAST TO GET ABSORBED IN THE UPPER
FLOW AND MOVE TO THE AREA TUESDAY. THE UPPER SYSTEM BRINGS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH IT THAT RUNS INTO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO N GA TUESDAY WITH THE
GULF SURFACE LOW OUT AHEAD OF IT. ALL THIS TRANSLATES TO INCREASING
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
ENOUGH SHEAR FORECAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF N GA THAT SPC HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ROTATING STORMS THAT COULD TRANSLATE N LATE TONIGHT
AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES N. A SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALSO NOTED FOR
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AGAIN FOR CENTRAL AND PARTS OF N GA.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TODAY AND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY. FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
Tommy Hunter
7:57 am on Monday, September 17, 2012
I hope they get this right. It's almost like sitting around waiting on a snowstorm that just never materializes. We got a little here last night, but not much.
David Binder
8:13 am on Monday, September 17, 2012
I know what you mean Tommy. The last few storms that were forcasted fizzled before reaching us. We NEEd a really good soaking rain. I've always wanted to be a TV weatherman. What other job can you be consistantly WRONG & still get paid ? LOL !
Tommy Hunter
9:00 am on Monday, September 17, 2012
EXACTLY what I keep telling my kids. And you can blame God when you're wrong. LOL.
North Georgia Weather
10:06 am on Monday, September 17, 2012
I hope they are correct too guys. We've had some really bad luck this year when they've forecast a lot of rain for us.
A neutral tilt upper low is forming over Texas while the surface low is taking shape over the Gulf right now. As these two features get their act together, we should start to see bands of rain forming to their east. Right now middle TN is getting a good dose of rain and as the day goes on this rainfall should begin to fill in over Georgia.
One reason I love the weather is that it is so unpredictable. It goes to show you how much humans don't understand more than how much they do.
Tommy Hunter
10:22 am on Monday, September 17, 2012
That's right about it being unpredictable. And, as such, I'm not really buying the cool down they are calling for. It is September afterall, not October. Hopefully I'm wrong.
North Georgia Weather
11:08 am on Monday, September 17, 2012
The pattern setup that we're in the process of entering for the fall period should be conducive to more rain events like this one as well as cooler than normal temps. Just a prelude to an El Nino winter! ;-)
North Georgia Weather
1:59 pm on Monday, September 17, 2012
Showers are building and we should see some rain within the next several hours. This rain will be on the increase as the surface low and cold front interact over the next 24-48 hours. Things are looking like they are on track for periods of heavy rain tonight and tomorrow.
North Georgia Weather
7:11 pm on Monday, September 17, 2012
0.86" over the last 24 hours here at DaculaWeather.com.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 640 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IN GEORGIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 84 COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
BALDWIN BIBB BLECKLEY
BUTTS CRAWFORD CRISP
DODGE DOOLY HOUSTON
JASPER JONES MONROE
PEACH PULASKI PUTNAM
TWIGGS WILCOX WILKINSON
IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
GREENE HANCOCK TALIAFERRO
WILKES
IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
BARROW CHEROKEE CLAYTON
COBB DAWSON DEKALB
DOUGLAS FANNIN FAYETTE
FORSYTH FULTON GILMER
GWINNETT HALL HENRY
LUMPKIN MORGAN NEWTON
PICKENS ROCKDALE UNION
WALTON
North Georgia Weather
7:12 pm on Monday, September 17, 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 640 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:
BARROW CHEROKEE CLAYTON
COBB DAWSON DEKALB
DOUGLAS FANNIN FAYETTE
FORSYTH FULTON GILMER
GWINNETT HALL HENRY
LUMPKIN MORGAN NEWTON
PICKENS ROCKDALE UNION
WALTON
Tommy Hunter
8:37 pm on Monday, September 17, 2012
Looking at the radar and the way things are becoming spotty as opposed to filling in, looks like another big bust for us. Looks like the heavy stuff is setting up a little north of where they thought in southern Tennessee.
North Georgia Weather
8:52 pm on Monday, September 17, 2012
The Birmingham office was talking about a dry-slot entering their state from the SW and that's effecting convection to the west of us. Tennessee is getting slammed with radar estimates showing 4-5" so far with more to come.
I'm currently at 0.89" and I still think we'll see an additional inch here, but you're right. It's not looking as promising as it was.
North Georgia Weather
8:58 pm on Monday, September 17, 2012
Here's a link to the radar totals from the Nashvillle radar. Most of the heavy rain has been over the Cumberland Plateau and down toward NE Alabama
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_09/nash_total.png
Tommy Hunter
9:05 pm on Monday, September 17, 2012
Always a dry slot. LOL Just like snow time.
North Georgia Weather
9:16 pm on Monday, September 17, 2012
Here's another image of the upper level part of the low. This is the 500mb view (or roughly 18,000 ft) and you can see the blue shaded areas which represent winds of 40-60 kts. Those winds and the upper level low will be moving our way. The threat and why we're under a Tornado Watch, is due to the winds turning with altitude. Note the change in wind direction around the upper low over Louisiana. Anyone to the east of the center of that rotation is susceptible to rotating thunderstorms or brief tornadoes. The drier air might take away some of the heavier stuff we might get but we should still be on the lookout later this evening. http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_09/meso_map_1.png
Tommy Hunter
9:03 am on Tuesday, September 18, 2012
Wow. No wonder we are in such a bad drought.
North Georgia Weather
9:44 am on Tuesday, September 18, 2012
LOL! We can't catch a break can we Tommy! So far I've had 1.28" although not everyone in Gwinnett has had that much. We have two more chances with a line coming through our area shortly, and another batch coming out of western Alabama.
North Georgia Weather
3:48 pm on Tuesday, September 18, 2012
Correction, I've had 1.07" total so far, I confuse myself sometimes! :-))
There is still a chance for a little more as the back side of the upper level system exits the area. There are some showers developing in northern Alabama that will be rotating this way over the next several hours as the low slides off to the northeast, but the heavy rain is over.
Sorry guys, we'll try harder next time. At this point, an inch is better than nothing! :-)
Tommy Hunter
3:56 pm on Tuesday, September 18, 2012
Let's ignore the next one. Talking about it just seems to screw things up. Kinda like the Braves announcer talking about the guy coming up is like 0-for-his-last-100 and he takes the first pitch deep for a grand slam! I'd bet a $100 there won't be no "dry slot" involved when it hits the mid-Atlantic and northeast.
North Georgia Weather
6:06 pm on Tuesday, September 18, 2012
LOL!!! That's good! :-)
Funny how that works isn't it! And they are really getting some rain up that direction right now. Dry slots are one of those play by play things that are very hard to predict.
Here's a 5:45pm GOES satellite image of the clouds over Georgia:
http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_09/goes_tue.jpg
North Georgia Weather
6:38 pm on Tuesday, September 18, 2012
Atlanta radar totals: http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_09/final_total.png
Huntsville radar totals: http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_09/final_total_htx.png
Notice the streaks where the heaviest rain fell.
North Georgia Weather
7:29 am on Wednesday, September 19, 2012
So after the rainfall, we stand a little more than 5 inches below normal for the year. We need what Tennessee got the next time around. Here's our rainfall scorecard so far: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_rainfallsummary_main.php
If the El Nino winter pans out as expected, systems like this will be the norm for the southeast. Throw cold air on top of that and that's what many are thinking this winter will be like. A storm like this one a little further west and south and we might be looking at a major snow storm for our area. I know Kristi hates for me to mention snow so I just had to throw that in here... :-))